
CONCACAF Nations League · Matchday
2026-09-27 23:00:00 · 07:00

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 2-0
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Match Report
Haiti Stun Costa Rica in CONCACAF Nations League Upset
Haiti 2–0 Costa Rica | CONCACAF Nations League | September 27, 2026
Result Summary
Haiti delivered a disciplined and clinical performance to claim a commanding 2–0 victory over Costa Rica in this CONCACAF Nations League fixture. Despite being outplayed for long stretches statistically, the Haitian side showed remarkable defensive resilience and ruthless efficiency in front of goal, handing Fernando Batista's Costa Rica side a damaging defeat.
Match Analysis
The match got off to an electric start when Jean-Ricner Bellegarde opened the scoring in just the 9th minute, converting from the right foot following an assist from Danley Jean Jacques. It was a moment of quality that gave Haiti an early platform to work from — and one they defended tenaciously throughout.
Costa Rica dominated large portions of the match in terms of raw numbers. The visitors finished with 56% possession, generated 21 total shots compared to Haiti's 6, and recorded an impressive 15 key passes to Haiti's 5. Their 80 dangerous attacks dwarfed Haiti's 37, and they tested the Haitian goalkeeper with 7 shots on target versus just 2 for the home side. On paper, Costa Rica should have found a way through.
Yet football, as always, is played on the pitch — not on the stats sheet. Haiti's backline, marshalled with organization and determination, held firm against the onslaught. Costa Rica's profligacy in front of goal was ultimately punished when Francisco Javier Calvo Quesada turned the ball into his own net in the 39th minute, a cruel blow that doubled Haiti's lead just before the interval and effectively sealed the contest.
The disciplinary record reflected the game's physical edge. Fabrice Picault was cautioned for Haiti in the 22nd minute for an argument, while Costa Rica's frustrations boiled over with four yellow cards distributed to Sebastián Acuña Murillo, Jeyland Mitchell, Douglas Andrey López Araya, and Gerson Torres Barrantes — the latter two coming after being introduced from the bench at halftime. That pattern of bookings told its own story: Costa Rica were frantic and increasingly desperate as the game slipped away.
Coach David Badia managed his resources sensibly, rotating his attacking options through the second half with substitutions including Yassin Fortune, Dany Jean, and Francois Dulysse helping to maintain structure and energy. Costa Rica's double substitution at halftime with López Araya and Torres Barrantes failed to shift the momentum, and subsequent changes could not unlock a resolute Haitian defense.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–1 draw, assigning a 38% probability to a Haiti win and a 27% chance of the draw materializing. With a confidence rating of just 39/100, this was acknowledged as a genuinely uncertain fixture — and the result proved it. Haiti's clinical two-goal margin was beyond our model's expectations, which leaned slightly toward Costa Rica's quality and attacking depth. The statistical dominance Costa Rica demonstrated was consistent with what the forecast anticipated, but the scoreline underlined that efficiency and defensive solidity outweighed volume on this occasion. The prediction outcome was incorrect.
Key Takeaways
- Haiti's efficiency was extraordinary — 6 shots, 2 on target, 2 goals.
- Bellegarde's early strike set the tone and forced Costa Rica to chase the game.
- Calvo Quesada's own goal was a killer blow that deflated Costa Rica's momentum heading into halftime.
- Costa Rica's 10 shots off target from 21 total tells the story of a wasteful evening.
- Haiti's defensive unit deserves enormous credit for absorbing 80 dangerous attacks without conceding.
Haiti vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Haiti and Costa Rica: Haiti 2W · 4D · Costa Rica 2W.
2
Haiti wins
4
Draws
2
Costa Rica wins
Haiti vs Costa Rica — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Haiti vs Costa Rica?
PredictNext's AI model favours Haiti with a 38% win probability — Haiti 38%, draw 27%, Costa Rica 35%.
What is the predicted score for Haiti vs Costa Rica?
The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Haiti vs Costa Rica, generated with 39% model confidence.
Will Haiti vs Costa Rica have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Haiti vs Costa Rica.
How accurate was the Haiti vs Costa Rica prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 2-0. The winner call was correct.