Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
3 vs 1

FA Cup · Matchday

2026-10-20 18:45:00 · 02:45 · CNG Stadium

Bury
Bury

AI Predicted: 2-0|Actual: 3-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Harrogate Town
HAT
2 - 0
Bury
BRY
58%
Confidence
Low Confidence
58.0%Home
23.0%Draw
19.0%Away
59.8%Home
21.3%Draw
18.9%Away
Harrogate Town hold a clear advantage as home favorites against Bury, backed by a 58% win probability in this FA Cup clash. The key tactical factor lies in Harrogate's ability to control the midfield and limit Bury's transitions, with a disciplined defensive shape likely the deciding element. AI pick: Harrogate Town Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHAT or Draw
81% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
52% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
58% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

HAT BRY
0%
47%
0
38%
53%
1
48%
0%
2
13%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

58%
54%
+4.0%
23%
23%
-0.0%
19%
23%
-4.0%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3651.654.103.90-4.3%-5.7%-25.9%
Pinnacle1.723.923.30-0.2%-9.8%-37.3%
1xbet1.673.953.93-3.1%-9.1%-25.3%
WilliamHill1.703.604.00-1.4%-17.2%-24.0%
Betfair1.623.904.20-6.0%-10.3%-20.2%
bwin1.684.004.10-2.6%-8.0%-22.1%
Unibet1.723.603.90-0.2%-17.2%-25.9%
Ladbrokes1.653.904.00-4.3%-10.3%-24.0%
Coral1.653.904.00-4.3%-10.3%-24.0%
BetVictor1.703.804.10-1.4%-12.6%-22.1%
Marathonbet1.653.953.85-4.3%-9.1%-26.8%
Interwetten1.704.103.90-1.4%-5.7%-25.9%
Cashpoint1.684.003.78-2.6%-8.0%-28.2%
DafabetVALUE1.734.404.30+0.3%+1.2%-18.3%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Harrogate Town 3–1 Bury | FA Cup | 20 October 2026

Result Summary

Harrogate Town advanced in the FA Cup with a convincing 3–1 victory over Bury at home, with Ellis Taylor proving the decisive figure in the closing stages after the visitors had threatened a second-half comeback. Simon Weaver's side controlled large portions of the contest and ultimately delivered a result that matched the shape of their performance.


Match Analysis

Harrogate Town wasted little time in making their intentions clear. Brad Dolaghan broke the deadlock in the 12th minute, giving the hosts an early foothold and setting the tone for what would be a dominant afternoon in terms of territory and shot volume. The statistics bear that dominance out clearly — Harrogate registered 22 shots to Bury's 6, and held 58% possession throughout the ninety minutes, suggesting they controlled the tempo with real authority for sustained periods.

Despite the statistical landscape tilting heavily in Harrogate's favour, the match was not without its drama. Anthony Johnson's Bury side showed resilience and refused to capitulate quietly, and their persistence was rewarded when Momodou Touray pulled one back in the 67th minute. That goal injected genuine tension into the tie and momentarily opened the door to a Bury revival. With over twenty minutes remaining at 1–1, the contest was very much alive.

It is to Harrogate Town's credit that they responded with composure rather than anxiety. The corners count was level at 7 apiece, and Bury recorded 71 attacks of their own — not a team without threat — but Simon Weaver's men were able to weather the pressure and reassert themselves. Ellis Taylor then became the story of the evening, netting twice in the final minutes: first in the 88th minute and again deep into stoppage time in the 90+4th minute to seal a 3–1 final scoreline. A brace in such high-pressure moments speaks to Taylor's composure and clinical instinct at a critical juncture.

The attacking statistics reinforce Harrogate's overall superiority — 35 dangerous attacks to Bury's 24 — and with such a disparity in shots, it was perhaps only a matter of time before the hosts' pressure told definitively.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast had Harrogate Town as favourites at 58%, with a predicted scoreline of 2–0. The outcome — a home win — validates the directional call, and the prediction is recorded as correct. The margin of victory (3–1 rather than 2–0) was slightly wider than anticipated, and the scoreline was more eventful than the clean sheet forecast suggested. Bury's 67th-minute goal added a layer of unpredictability that a 58/100 confidence rating had essentially acknowledged. Overall, this was a satisfying forecast result, with the core logic — Harrogate's home strength and superiority in attacking output — proving well-founded.


Key Takeaways

  • Brad Dolaghan's early goal set the platform; Harrogate's fast start was instrumental.
  • Ellis Taylor's late brace sealed the tie and demonstrated clinical finishing under pressure.
  • Bury's Momodou Touray gave the visitors brief hope, but it ultimately proved insufficient.
  • Harrogate's shot dominance (22 vs 6) underlined Simon Weaver's side as the deserving winners.
  • A comfortable FA Cup progression for Harrogate Town.

Harrogate Town vs Bury Head-to-Head

Last 1 meetings between Harrogate Town and Bury: Harrogate Town 0W · 1D · Bury 0W.

0

1

0

Sat, Oct 17, 2026Bury1-1Harrogate Town

Harrogate Town vs Bury — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Harrogate Town vs Bury?

PredictNext's AI model favours Harrogate Town with a 58% win probability — Harrogate Town 58%, draw 23%, Bury 19%.

What is the predicted score for Harrogate Town vs Bury?

The AI forecasts a 2-0 scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Bury, generated with 58% model confidence.

Will Harrogate Town vs Bury have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Harrogate Town vs Bury.

How accurate was the Harrogate Town vs Bury prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-0; the match finished 3-1. The winner call was correct.

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