Lecce
Lecce
1 vs 0

Serie A · Matchday

2026-05-24 00:00:00 · 08:00

Genoa
Genoa

AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 1-0

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Lecce
LEC
1 - 0
Genoa
GEN
56%
Confidence
Low Confidence
50.0%Home
27.0%Draw
23.0%Away
**Lecce** enter this Serie A clash as narrow favorites on home soil, with **Genoa** dealt a significant blow as V. Carvalho Oliveira is suspended — a high-priority absence that disrupts their midfield structure. The hosts' defensive solidity will be key against a depleted **Genoa** side also missing Cornet and Onana through injury. AI pick: Lecce Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
77% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
68% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
66% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

Lecce Genoa
61%
20%
0
39%
48%
1
0%
32%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

50%
55%
-4.8%
27%
26%
+0.6%
23%
19%
+4.2%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

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Match Report

Lecce Grind Out Vital Victory Over Genoa

Lecce 1–0 Genoa | Serie A | 24 May 2026


Result Summary

A sixth-minute strike from Lameck Banda proved enough for Lecce to claim all three points against Genoa at the Stadio Via del Mare. It was a performance that encapsulated everything Eusebio Di Francesco's side do well — compact, disciplined, and ruthlessly effective on the counter-attack. Daniele De Rossi's Genoa dominated the ball but were ultimately undone by a lack of cutting edge where it mattered most.


Match Analysis

The tone of the match was set almost immediately. Just six minutes in, Santiago Pierotti picked up the ball and delivered a telling assist for Banda, who finished with his right foot to give Lecce an early lead. It was the kind of incisive, direct play that Genoa simply could not replicate despite holding 68% possession throughout the match.

Genoa's dominance on the ball was undeniable — their 84% successful pass percentage compared to Lecce's 73% reflects the gulf in technical control. Yet for all that possession, De Rossi's side managed just one shot on target from eight total attempts, with seven shots going off target. Lecce, by contrast, registered four shots on target from nine attempts, underlining their greater efficiency in the final third.

Lecce's 45 dangerous attacks to Genoa's 34 is a striking figure given the possession disparity, pointing to how effectively Di Francesco's side absorbed pressure and transitioned quickly. The six corners won by Genoa versus just one for Lecce tells a similar story — Genoa were knocking on the door repeatedly, but Wladimiro Falcone and the Lecce backline held firm.

The yellow cards for Ylber Ramadani (45') and Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira (76') reflected the physical effort required to keep Genoa at bay, with Lecce committing 11 fouls compared to Genoa's six. De Rossi made a series of changes — bringing on Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Wedtoin Latif Ouedraogo, Jacopo Corci, Filippo Carbone, and Gaël Lafont in search of an equaliser — but the Lecce defence, reinforced by the introduction of Konan Ignace Jocelyn N'dri, Gaby Jean, Nikola Štulić, and K. Gaspar in the closing stages, never looked like conceding.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Lecce win, with a 50% probability assigned to a home victory. The model's confidence rating of 56/100 reflected genuine uncertainty given Genoa's quality, yet the prediction landed correctly. The match played out almost precisely as modelled — Lecce's defensive solidity and early goal proved decisive, while Genoa's inability to convert their possession advantage was a key factor our analysis had identified as a risk for De Rossi's side.


Key Takeaways

  • Banda's early finish set the tone and proved the difference in what became a war of attrition.
  • Lecce's ability to generate dangerous attacks on limited possession (32%) is a tactical hallmark under Di Francesco.
  • Genoa's 68% possession returned just one shot on target — a damning return that De Rossi will need to address.
  • A clean sheet for Lecce keeps them competitive in the league standings, while Genoa's efficiency in front of goal remains a significant concern.

Lecce vs Genoa Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Lecce and Genoa: Lecce 1W · 5D · Genoa 9W.

1

5

9

Sat, Aug 23, 2025Genoa0-0Lecce
Fri, Mar 14, 2025Genoa2-1Lecce
Sun, Jan 5, 2025Lecce0-0Genoa
Sun, Jan 28, 2024Genoa2-1Lecce
Fri, Sep 22, 2023Lecce1-0Genoa

Lecce vs Genoa — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?

PredictNext's AI model favours Lecce with a 50% win probability — Lecce 50%, draw 27%, Genoa 23%.

What is the predicted score for Lecce vs Genoa?

The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Lecce vs Genoa, generated with 56% model confidence.

Will Lecce vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 32% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for under 2.5 goals in Lecce vs Genoa.

How accurate was the Lecce vs Genoa prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 1-0. The winner call was correct.

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