Malawi 2–1 South Sudan | AFCON 2026 Qualification | Match Analysis

Malawi secured a vital three points on home soil, defeating South Sudan 2–1 in this Africa Cup of Nations 2026 qualifying fixture. Despite a brief second-half equaliser from the visitors, Callisto Pasuwa's side showed resilience and composure to claim the win through a decisive goal from Lloyd Njaliwa.

Match Analysis

Malawi were the dominant force throughout the contest, and the statistics leave little room for debate. The Flames controlled 67% of possession, completed passes at an 80% success rate, and generated 16 attacks to South Sudan's five. With five total shots compared to South Sudan's recorded zero, the home side's territorial control was comprehensive.

Adepoju Babatunde Adebare broke the deadlock in the 20th minute with a right-foot finish, rewarding Malawi's early pressure and setting the tone for what looked like a comfortable afternoon. South Sudan's defensive shape was tested repeatedly, with Malawi also registering five key passes and six corners across the 90 minutes.

The visitors did threaten a response, however. S. Dhata levelled matters three minutes into the second half, converting with a right-foot shot to make it 1–1 shortly after the restart. The goal came amid a wave of South Sudan changes — Keer Mangar Majak and Valentino Yuel both introduced at the 54-minute mark — as coach Nicolas Dupuis sought to shift the momentum in his side's favour.

Malawi responded with purpose. The introduction of Francisco Madinga at the 74th minute added fresh legs to the Flames' midfield, and the key moment arrived just before that on the hour mark. Lloyd Njaliwa restored the lead in the 64th minute, again via a right-foot shot, giving Malawi a cushion they would not relinquish. Madinga himself was subsequently cautioned in the 76th minute for a foul, though the yellow card carried no further consequence.

South Sudan accumulated three yellow cards of their own — Mario Taban Cherelino Albano in the 28th minute, Rahan Angier in the 84th, and goalscorer S. Dhata in stoppage time — reflecting the growing frustration within the visiting camp as the result slipped away. Albano was later substituted off in the 80th minute following his earlier caution.

With four offsides against them, Malawi's attacking intent was occasionally overenthusiastic, but the overall picture was one of clinical and controlled home dominance.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Malawi victory, with a 46% probability assigned to the home win outcome. While the scoreline read 2–1 rather than a clean sheet, the prediction of a Malawi win proved correct, making this a successful directional forecast despite the low confidence rating of 37/100. The statistical dominance that unfolded — in possession, attacks, and shot volume — aligned well with the reasoning behind favouring the home side.

Key Takeaways

• Malawi's control was near-total: 67% possession, 80% pass accuracy, and five key passes underline a tactically disciplined performance under Callisto Pasuwa.
• S. Dhata's equaliser was a brief interruption rather than a genuine turning point — South Sudan registered zero shots on target across the entire match.
• Lloyd Njaliwa's 64th-minute winner was the decisive moment, and Malawi managed the closing stages comfortably.
• South Sudan's three yellow cards and limited attacking output suggest they struggled to cope with the physical and technical demands of the match.
• This result will be a significant boost for Malawi's qualification campaign, adding three crucial points at home.