Norway
Norway
3 vs 2

UEFA Nations League · Matchday

2026-09-24 18:45:00 · 02:45 · Ullevaal Stadion

Denmark
Denmark

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 3-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Norway
NOR
1 - 1
Denmark
DEN
36%
Confidence
Unpredictable
44.0%Home
27.0%Draw
29.0%Away
**Norway** hold a slight home advantage over **Denmark** in this closely contested Nations League clash, though the probabilities are nearly split three ways. The key battleground will be midfield control, where Norway's pressing intensity at home could limit Denmark's creative outlets. AI pick: Norway Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredNOR or DEN
73% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
56% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?Yes
52% both teams score
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

NOR DEN
0%
38%
0
48%
49%
1
52%
13%
2
0%
0%
3+

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Match Report

Norway 3–2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League | 24 September 2026

Result Summary

A pulsating Scandinavian derby ended in Norway's favour as Erling Håland's brace proved decisive in a 3–2 victory over Denmark. Norway raced into a commanding early lead before Denmark fought back to level the contest, only for Håland to deliver the winning blow with 16 minutes remaining. Ståle Solbakken's side claimed three vital Nations League points in what was an absorbing, end-to-end encounter.


Match Analysis

Norway set the tone almost immediately, establishing themselves in the final third with purpose. Oscar Bobb opened the scoring in the 14th minute, converting with his left foot from an assist by captain Martin Ødegaard. The momentum barely paused — Erling Håland doubled the advantage just four minutes later, finishing from an Antonio Nusa delivery to make it 2–0 by the 18th minute. Norway had been ruthlessly clinical in front of goal, converting two of their early opportunities with minimal fuss.

Denmark refused to fold, however, and pulled one back through Mikkel Damsgaard's free-kick in the 25th minute, providing Brian Riemer's side with a lifeline heading into the break. The match statistics reflected just how closely contested the game truly was — both sides registered 13 total shots and 7 shots on target, with Denmark edging possession at 51% to Norway's 49%. Denmark also created more from set-piece situations, recording 7 corners to Norway's 4, which ultimately manifested in their second goal.

The second half saw Denmark push for an equaliser with increasing conviction, and it arrived on the hour mark. Rasmus Højlund levelled at 2–2 with a header in the 60th minute, completing a dramatic comeback from two goals down. The game had been turned on its head, and the atmosphere inside the stadium must have been electric.

Solbakken responded with a triple substitution in the 66th minute — Thelo Aasgaard, Andreas Schjelderup, and David Møller Wolfe all entered the fray. The changes appeared to reinvigorate Norway's attacking intent. Just eight minutes later, Håland struck again, this time assisted by Ødegaard once more, restoring Norway's lead with a composed left-foot finish in the 74th minute. It was a moment of genuine quality that underlined Håland's status as the match's defining presence.

The closing stages were feisty, with David Møller Wolfe collecting yellow cards in the 68th and 90+3rd minutes — a disciplinary record that will concern Solbakken going forward. Denmark pushed hard in the final minutes, and Gustav Isaksen received a yellow card in the 90+1st minute for dissent, reflecting the frustration of a side unable to find a third equaliser. Norway's 98 attacks and 59 dangerous attacks to Denmark's 91 and 51 respectively ultimately painted the picture of a home side that created just enough to see the game through.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match analysis forecast a 1–1 draw, carrying only 36/100 confidence — a rating that honestly reflected the inherent difficulty of predicting this fixture. The forecast was incorrect, with Norway claiming a 3–2 win. A draw outcome was assigned just 27% probability compared to a 44% home win expectation, so while the prediction missed, the model's lean toward a Norway victory had some basis. The sheer volume of goals and the dramatic momentum swings were beyond what any forecast reliably captures.


Key Takeaways

  • Erling Håland was the match-winner with two well-taken left-foot finishes, both assisted by Martin Ødegaard — a partnership delivering at the highest level.
  • Denmark's dead-ball delivery posed genuine threats, with Damsgaard's free-kick and Højlund's header highlighting their set-piece danger.
  • David Møller Wolfe's double yellow will be a concern for Norway heading into upcoming fixtures.
  • The statistics underline a match that was far closer than the final scoreline suggests — possession, passing accuracy, and shots were almost identical for

Norway vs Denmark Head-to-Head

Last 2 meetings between Norway and Denmark: Norway 0W · 1D · Denmark 1W.

0

1

1

Tue, Sep 6, 2011Denmark2-0Norway
Sat, Mar 26, 2011Norway1-1Denmark

Norway vs Denmark — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Norway vs Denmark?

PredictNext's AI model favours Norway with a 44% win probability — Norway 44%, draw 27%, Denmark 29%.

What is the predicted score for Norway vs Denmark?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Norway vs Denmark, generated with 36% model confidence.

Will Norway vs Denmark have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Norway vs Denmark.

How accurate was the Norway vs Denmark prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 3-2. The winner call was correct.

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