
Coppa Italia · Matchday
2026-08-17 16:00:00 · 00:00

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 1-1
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Match Report
Pisa 1–1 Empoli | Coppa Italia | 17 August 2026
Result Summary
A frantic opening to this Coppa Italia encounter ultimately delivered a share of the spoils, as Pisa and Empoli played out a 1–1 draw at the Arena Garibaldi. Despite Pisa's greater overall dominance across the ninety minutes, Empoli's resilience proved decisive, with Edoardo Saporiti's 61st-minute equaliser cancelling out Tommaso Simone Marras's first-half strike to leave both sides level at the final whistle.
Match Analysis
The opening exchanges were nothing short of extraordinary. Both teams traded blows at a breathless pace in the earliest minutes, with a flurry of goals that defied conventional early-match caution. Marras broke the deadlock inside two minutes for Pisa, only for Steven Shpendi to draw Empoli level almost immediately. The pattern continued in a remarkable early spell, before the match eventually settled into a more recognisable rhythm heading toward the half-hour mark.
The key moment before the break came at 44 minutes, when Marras — clearly the most dangerous figure on the pitch in the first half — converted a left-foot shot, assisted by Mehdi Léris, to send Pisa into the interval with the advantage. It was a finish that rewarded Pisa's sustained pressure and their superior statistical output: 59% ball possession, 99 attacks compared to Empoli's 66, and 40 dangerous attacks to the visitors' 29.
Empoli's response after the break was pointed. Coach Guido Pagliuca made bold changes at half-time, introducing Shpendi and reshuffling his attacking resources. The gamble paid dividends when Edoardo Saporiti struck with a right-foot shot in the 61st minute to restore parity, a moment that illustrated Empoli's capacity to threaten on the counter despite playing the more reactive game. Indragoli, introduced from the bench, picked up a yellow card shortly after his introduction — one of three yellow cards shown to Empoli across the match — underlining the visitors' combative, if sometimes undisciplined, approach.
Pisa coach Paolo Bianco turned to his bench as well, with a wave of substitutions at 69 minutes bringing on Tomás Lago Pontes Esteves, Felipe Ignacio Loyola Olea, and Henrik Wendel Meister to inject fresh energy. Despite these moves, Pisa could not find a decisive second goal, even as their shot count (13 total, 5 on target) and key passing figures (8 key passes to Empoli's 3) reflected continued territorial superiority. Empoli's defensive organisation, marshalled effectively in the second half, ultimately held firm.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a Pisa victory at 2–1, with a home-win probability of 52% — a moderate-confidence call that proved incorrect. The prediction was directionally sound in identifying Pisa as the stronger side: the statistics clearly support the notion that Pisa were the dominant team, with better possession, more attacks, and superior passing accuracy (85% to Empoli's 70%). However, the draw outcome (predicted at 27% probability) materialised, with Empoli demonstrating the clinical edge required to snatch an equaliser against the run of play. This is a recurring theme in cup football, where a single sharp moment can level a game that one side has otherwise controlled. The 53/100 confidence rating appropriately reflected the uncertainty involved.
Takeaways
- Marras was Pisa's standout performer, contributing decisively in both the opening burst and the crucial 44th-minute goal.
- Empoli's discipline issues — three yellow cards — could prove costly in future rounds if not addressed.
- Despite dominant statistics, Pisa's inability to convert territorial advantage into a winning margin was the defining narrative.
- Both squads showed considerable squad depth through their substitution windows, a positive sign for the weeks ahead.
Pisa vs Empoli Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Pisa and Empoli: Pisa 2W · 1D · Empoli 3W.
2
Pisa wins
1
Draws
3
Empoli wins
Pisa vs Empoli — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pisa vs Empoli?
PredictNext's AI model favours Pisa with a 52% win probability — Pisa 52%, draw 27%, Empoli 21%.
What is the predicted score for Pisa vs Empoli?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Pisa vs Empoli, generated with 53% model confidence.
Will Pisa vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for under 2.5 goals in Pisa vs Empoli.
How accurate was the Pisa vs Empoli prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.