San Marino
San Marino
0 vs 7

UEFA Nations League · Matchday

2026-09-26 16:00:00 · 00:00

Finland
Finland

AI Predicted: 0-3|Actual: 0-7

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

San Marino
SAN
0 - 3
Finland
FIN
59%
Confidence
Low Confidence
3.0%Home
11.0%Draw
86.0%Away
Finland enter as heavy favorites against San Marino, who have one of the lowest competitive win rates in international football and rarely threaten at home. The decisive factor will be Finland's ability to break down a deep, defensive block — their midfield creativity and set-piece threat should prove too much for San Marino's limited backline. AI pick: Finland Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredDraw or Away
97% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
62% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
68% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

San Marino Finland
83%
0%
0
17%
14%
1
0%
24%
2
0%
62%
3+

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Match Report

San Marino 0–7 Finland | UEFA Nations League | 26 September 2026

Result Summary

Finland delivered a commanding and comprehensive victory over San Marino, running out 7–0 winners in a Nations League fixture that was never in doubt from the opening minutes. The result is one of Finland's most emphatic international wins in recent memory, with goals spread across the full ninety minutes underlining their total dominance over the contest.

Match Analysis

Finland wasted no time establishing control. Joel Pohjanpalo opened the scoring with a left-foot finish inside just five minutes, setting the tone for an evening that would offer San Marino little to cling to. Adrian Svanbäck added a second via a header in the 14th minute, assisted by Leo Walta, and any lingering hope of a San Marino response was effectively extinguished.

The statistics tell the story with brutal clarity. Finland enjoyed 75% ball possession against San Marino's 25%, registered 23 total shots to the hosts' solitary effort, and produced 11 shots on target compared to zero from San Marino. The visitors also recorded 169 attacks versus just 40 from the home side, with 73 dangerous attacks to San Marino's 14. Finland's passing was equally dominant, with a 91% successful pass rate against San Marino's 66%.

Benjamin Källman made it three just before the half-hour mark, converting an Svanbäck assist with a right-foot finish in the 33rd minute. The second half continued in the same vein, with Leo Walta netting twice in quick succession — first in the 50th minute and again in the 55th, the latter assisted by Juho Lähteenmäki — to put Finland firmly out of sight.

San Marino's evening worsened when Alessandro Golinucci received a red card in the 51st minute for a foul, leaving the hosts with ten men and compounding their difficulties for the remainder of the match. Despite a raft of substitutions made by coach Roberto Cevoli, including the introductions of Mularoni, Pancotti, and Giocondi, San Marino offered nothing going forward, finishing with just 1 key pass across the entire match compared to Finland's 19.

Pohjanpalo completed the scoring in the 79th minute with his second of the night, assisted by Svanbäck, who ended the game with two assists to his name — a standout individual performance on a successful collective night for Jacob Friis's side.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast of a Finland win (0–3) was directionally correct — Finland's superiority was anticipated, reflected in an 86% probability assigned to a Finnish victory. However, the margin of victory significantly exceeded the predicted scoreline. Our model assigned a confidence rating of 59/100, which in hindsight proved conservative; this was not merely a routine Finland win but an overwhelming statement performance. The final score of 7–0 suggests that even optimistic projections for Finland underestimated the gap in quality between these two sides on the night.

Key Takeaways

  • Finland's clinical efficiency was exceptional — converting 11 shots on target into 7 goals highlights a ruthless edge in front of goal.
  • Leo Walta was instrumental, contributing a goal assist in the first half before netting twice after the break, and Adrian Svanbäck was equally influential with two assists.
  • San Marino's red card mid-second half made a difficult evening near-impossible, removing any faint possibility of a consolation.
  • Finland's dominant possession and attacking output confirm their clear superiority at this level of the Nations League.

San Marino vs Finland Head-to-Head

Last 4 meetings between San Marino and Finland: San Marino 0W · 0D · Finland 4W.

0

0

4

Mon, Nov 20, 2023San Marino1-2Finland
Mon, Jun 19, 2023Finland6-0San Marino
Fri, Jun 3, 2011San Marino0-1Finland
Wed, Nov 17, 2010Finland8-0San Marino

San Marino vs Finland — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win San Marino vs Finland?

PredictNext's AI model favours Finland with a 86% win probability — San Marino 3%, draw 11%, Finland 86%.

What is the predicted score for San Marino vs Finland?

The AI forecasts a 0-3 scoreline for San Marino vs Finland, generated with 59% model confidence.

Will San Marino vs Finland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for under 2.5 goals in San Marino vs Finland.

How accurate was the San Marino vs Finland prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 0-3; the match finished 0-7. The winner call was correct.

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