Serbia 1–2 Greece | UEFA Nations League | September 24, 2026

Result Summary

In a dramatic Nations League encounter, Greece produced a stunning comeback to defeat Serbia 1–2. Andrija Živković gave Serbia an early lead inside four minutes, but Greece dominated large portions of the contest and were rewarded with a Christos Tzolis equaliser on 74 minutes before Anastasios Douvikas completed the turnaround deep into stoppage time to seal a memorable away victory.

Match Analysis

Serbia made the perfect start. Just four minutes in, Andrija Živković converted a left-foot shot, assisted by captain Dušan Tadić, to hand the hosts an early advantage. It was the kind of opener that might have knocked a lesser side off course, but Greece responded with composed, purposeful football that gradually asserted control over the contest.

The statistics tell the clearest story of the evening. Greece dominated possession at 61% to Serbia's 39%, completed passes at an 89% success rate, and generated a remarkable 26 total shots compared to Serbia's nine. Even more telling, the visitors registered 64 dangerous attacks against Serbia's 29, and their 20 key passes against Serbia's eight underlined just how thoroughly Ivan Jovanović's side controlled the flow of the match. For long stretches, Serbia were pinned back and forced to absorb pressure with limited attacking relief.

Serbia's discipline began to fray in the second half. Filip Kostić was booked for a foul in the 63rd minute, and shortly after, Aleksa Terzić — introduced as Kostić's replacement — picked up a yellow card of his own in the 72nd minute, summing up the pressure Serbia were under. Greece's own Christos Zafeiris was cautioned for handball in the 83rd minute, but by that point the game had already shifted.

The equaliser arrived on 74 minutes. Christos Tzolis finished with his left foot from an assist by Vangelis Pavlidis, moments before both players were withdrawn as Greece managed their resources with the scoreline now level. Then, in the fourth minute of stoppage time, substitute Anastasios Douvikas — introduced at the 74-minute mark — delivered the decisive blow, heading home from a Konstantinos Tsimikas delivery to complete one of the more dramatic late turnarounds of the Nations League campaign.

Serbia's manager Veljko Paunovic made multiple attempts to change the game through substitutions, bringing on Saša Lukić, Dejan Joveljić, and Nemanja Gudelj among others, but could not stem the Greek tide.

Prediction Review

Our model forecast a 1–1 draw with a modest confidence rating of just 31/100 — one of the lower-certainty forecasts in our system, which correctly reflected the uncertainty surrounding this fixture. The actual outcome was a 2–1 Greece victory, meaning our prediction was incorrect. That said, the low confidence score acknowledged that an away win was a genuine possibility, with our model assigning 34% probability to a Greek victory — ultimately the closest single outcome to what unfolded. The late, dramatic nature of the winning goal made this particularly difficult to forecast.

Key Takeaways

• Greece were the better side statistically across almost every meaningful category, making their comeback victory a deserved one.
• Early goals can be deceptive — Serbia's fast start disguised a structural dominance that Greece steadily built through the match.
• Douvikas's 90+4' header was the defining moment, underlining the value of impact substitutes in tight Nations League fixtures.
• Greece's Ivan Jovanović will be particularly encouraged by his side's resilience and clinical finishing under pressure.