Sint Maarten 0–1 Belize | CONCACAF Nations League | September 27, 2026

Result Summary

Belize claimed a hard-fought victory on Sint Maarten's turf, with Nahjib Kazim Guerra's 52nd-minute strike proving the decisive moment in a match that Sint Maarten were forced to navigate with ten men for over half the contest. Carlos Slusher's side were thoroughly dominant across every major statistical category, and the result ultimately reflected their superiority on the night.

Match Analysis

The game's pivotal moment arrived not in the goal column, but in the 35th minute when Sint Maarten's Ronan Olivacce received a red card for a foul — a dismissal that fundamentally reshaped the contest. Sint Maarten had already been cautioned as early as the 22nd minute, suggesting a side under pressure and struggling to contain Belize's attacking intent. Reduced to ten men for the majority of the encounter, the home side's already limited prospects of taking anything from the game diminished sharply.

Belize's statistical dominance tells the full story. They controlled 66% of possession to Sint Maarten's 34%, executed passes at an 86% success rate versus the hosts' 68%, and generated 109 attacks compared to Sint Maarten's 82. More tellingly, Belize registered 14 total shots and 5 on target, while Sint Maarten managed just 5 shots in total with zero finding the target — a striking illustration of how completely the numerical disadvantage neutralized the home side's attacking threat.

The breakthrough arrived when Krisean López delivered the assist for Guerra's left-footed finish in the 52nd minute — a moment of quality that rewarded Belize's sustained pressure after the restart. Coach Slusher made intelligent use of his bench, with Daijon Akeem Daniels replacing Orlando Velasquez at half-time, injecting fresh energy at the start of the second half just before the goal arrived. Moises Hernandez also entered in the 72nd minute to help manage the game as Belize sought to protect their lead.

Sint Maarten attempted to respond through a flurry of late substitutions — Len Bleeker, Kay Gerritsen, and others introduced from the 74th minute onward — but with no shots on target registered throughout the entire match, their threat remained negligible. The closing stages saw tempers fray, with Quintón Christopher Edson Christina booked in the 77th minute and Mitchell de Nooijer cautioned in added time, while Belize's Guerra also picked up a late yellow in the 90+5th minute for a foul.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast projected a 1–1 draw, with home (37%), draw (29%), and away (34%) probabilities relatively compressed — a low-confidence call reflected in a confidence rating of just 33/100. The prediction proved incorrect, with Belize claiming the win. In hindsight, the forecast underestimated Belize's capability to control the match and did not account for the compounding effect of Sint Maarten's early red card, which swung the contest decisively in the visitors' favour.

Key Takeaways

• Ronan Olivacce's 35th-minute red card was the defining moment — Sint Maarten's defensive structure collapsed under the numerical disadvantage.
• Nahjib Kazim Guerra was the match-winner, combining finishing quality with the discipline to earn the only goal from Krisean López's assist.
• Belize's 66% possession and 14 total shots underscore a convincing performance that deserved the three points.
• Sint Maarten registered zero shots on target — a damning reflection of a night when everything went wrong from an early stage.
• Our low-confidence forecast correctly flagged uncertainty, but the actual outcome leaned firmly toward the away side.