Torino
Torino
3 vs 2

Serie A · Matchday

2026-10-23 18:45:00 · 02:45 · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Monza
Monza

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 3-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Torino
TOR
1 - 1
Monza
MON
55%
Confidence
Low Confidence
43.0%Home
27.0%Draw
30.0%Away
44.3%Home
27.2%Draw
28.5%Away
**Torino** enter this Serie A clash with a slight edge, though **Monza** have shown resilience in recent H2H meetings. Monza's attack is notably weakened with Y. Maye and E. Zeballos both ruled out through injury, limiting their offensive threat and potentially giving Torino's defensive line a more comfortable afternoon. Watch for Torino's midfield control to be the decisive tactical factor against a depleted visiting side. AI pick: Torino Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredTOR or MON
73% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
56% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
54% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to scoreGiovanni SimeoneAlso: Sandro Kulenovic, Duvan Zapata

Goal Probability

TOR MON
15%
34%
0
47%
66%
1
37%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

43%
45%
-2.0%
27%
27%
-0.5%
30%
28%
+2.5%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet365VALUE2.103.303.50-9.7%-10.9%+5.0%
PinnacleVALUE2.153.503.34-7.6%-5.5%+0.2%
1xbetVALUE2.153.623.64-7.6%-2.3%+9.2%
WilliamHillVALUE2.053.303.40-11.9%-10.9%+2.0%
BetfairVALUE2.003.503.50-14.0%-5.5%+5.0%
bwinVALUE2.103.503.40-9.7%-5.5%+2.0%
Ladbrokes2.103.403.30-9.7%-8.2%-1.0%
Sbo2.053.223.30-11.9%-13.1%-1.0%
BetVictorVALUE2.103.303.40-9.7%-10.9%+2.0%
MelBetVALUE2.073.483.50-11.0%-6.0%+5.0%
MarathonbetVALUE2.093.523.54-10.1%-5.0%+6.2%
MansionBet2.093.353.15-10.1%-9.5%-5.5%
DafabetVALUE2.143.403.45-8.0%-8.2%+3.5%
CoralVALUE2.103.503.40-9.7%-5.5%+2.0%

Polymarket Odds

Loading prediction market data...

Trading Strategy

Loading market depth data...

Match Report

Torino 3-2 Monza | Serie A | 23 October 2026

Result Summary

A dramatic and entertaining clash at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino saw the home side claim all three points in a match that swung back and forth before a late twist. Torino ran out 3-2 winners over Monza, with goals from Kian Fitz-Jim, Rafik Belghali, and Nikola Vlašić doing the bulk of the work — though Nathan Patterson's injury-time own goal gave the scoreline a more anxious feel than Ignazio Abate's side would have liked.

Match Analysis

Torino controlled large portions of this encounter, and the statistics underline their dominance in the attacking third. The home side registered 17 shots in total to Monza's 7, with 7 on target compared to 3 for Ivan Juric's visitors. Their 57 dangerous attacks to Monza's 35 tells a similar story — this was a Torino team that consistently threatened and created.

The opening goal arrived just before half-time when Kian Fitz-Jim converted from the left foot in the 39th minute, assisted by Giovanni Simeone, giving Torino a deserved lead heading into the break. Ardian Ismajli had already picked up a yellow card in the 34th minute for a foul, providing a moment of concern for the home dugout, but it didn't disrupt the rhythm.

Monza responded swiftly after the restart. Gustavo Miguel Pereira De Sousa levelled in the 47th minute with a right-foot strike, briefly silencing the home crowd and raising hopes of an away point for Juric's men. However, Torino's response was clinical. Substitute Gvidas Gineitis, who had come on for Rolando Mandragora at half-time, immediately made his mark by teeing up Rafik Belghali for a 61st-minute right-foot finish to restore the lead.

The third and most decisive blow came from Nikola Vlašić in the 72nd minute — another right-foot shot — shortly after Torino had introduced three substitutes simultaneously, including Daniel Santos Bragança, Sandro Kulenovic, and Nathan Patterson. Monza introduced Patrick Cutrone and Cyril Ngonge to chase the game, but the match appeared settled — until Patterson, only minutes after coming on, turned the ball into his own net deep in stoppage time to make it 3-2 and set up a nervy finale that Torino ultimately survived.

Torino's 13 key passes to Monza's 5 reinforces just how thoroughly they dominated in creative output. With 51% possession and a pass success rate of 79%, Abate's side were efficient enough in possession while remaining direct and dangerous.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1-1 draw, assigning only a 43% probability to a Torino home win. That assessment proved to be off the mark. While the relatively even possession and attack numbers (105 vs 107 total attacks) might have suggested a balanced contest, Torino's clinical edge in front of goal — converting 3 of their 7 shots on target — made the difference. The confidence level of 55/100 reflected genuine uncertainty, but the model underweighted Torino's attacking threat in this fixture.

Key Takeaways

  • Gvidas Gineitis made an immediate impact after coming off the bench, assisting Belghali's goal just minutes after his introduction — a pivotal moment that shifted the match's momentum decisively.
  • Torino's attacking depth was on full display, with three different scorers and the bench contributing meaningfully.
  • Nathan Patterson's late own goal added unnecessary drama and is a reminder of the risks of late substitutions in open games.
  • For Ivan Juric and Monza, the defeat is frustrating — they responded well to going behind but were ultimately punished by a more efficient opponent.

Torino vs Monza Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Torino and Monza: Torino 3W · 3D · Monza 1W.

3

3

1

Tue, Sep 1, 2026Torino0-1Monza
Sun, Mar 2, 2025Monza0-2Torino
Sun, Nov 24, 2024Torino1-1Monza
Sat, Mar 30, 2024Torino1-0Monza
Sat, Nov 11, 2023Monza1-1Torino

Torino vs Monza — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Torino vs Monza?

PredictNext's AI model favours Torino with a 43% win probability — Torino 43%, draw 27%, Monza 30%.

What is the predicted score for Torino vs Monza?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Torino vs Monza, generated with 55% model confidence.

Will Torino vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Torino vs Monza.

How accurate was the Torino vs Monza prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 3-2. The winner call was correct.

More Serie A AI Predictions