Serie A · Matchday
2026-10-18 10:30:00 · 18:30 · Dacia Arena
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 0-3
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.50 | -13.6% | -5.5% | +12.5% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 1.84 | 3.48 | 5.04 | -11.7% | -6.0% | +26.0% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.59 | -11.7% | -3.6% | +14.7% |
| WilliamHillVALUE | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.40 | -13.6% | -8.2% | +10.0% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.91 | 3.40 | 4.33 | -8.3% | -8.2% | +8.3% |
| bwinVALUE | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.40 | -12.2% | -5.5% | +10.0% |
| UnibetVALUE | 1.79 | 3.45 | 4.50 | -14.1% | -6.8% | +12.5% |
| LadbrokesVALUE | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.40 | -12.2% | -8.2% | +10.0% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 1.84 | 3.55 | 4.40 | -11.7% | -4.1% | +10.0% |
| DafabetVALUE | 1.91 | 3.55 | 4.20 | -8.3% | -4.1% | +5.0% |
| CoralVALUE | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.40 | -12.2% | -5.5% | +10.0% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 1.85 | 3.45 | 4.65 | -11.2% | -6.8% | +16.3% |
| Macauslot | 1.80 | 3.33 | 3.83 | -13.6% | -10.1% | -4.2% |
| Sbo | 1.86 | 3.14 | 3.66 | -10.7% | -15.2% | -8.5% |
| CashpointVALUE | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.51 | -13.6% | -2.8% | +12.7% |
| InterwettenVALUE | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.50 | -12.2% | -5.5% | +12.5% |
| BetVictorVALUE | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.50 | -13.6% | -5.5% | +12.5% |
| MelBetVALUE | 1.82 | 3.52 | 4.54 | -12.6% | -5.0% | +13.5% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Udinese 0–3 Lecce | Serie A | 18 October 2026
Result Summary
Lecce delivered a commanding away performance at the Bluenergy Stadium, dismantling Udinese with a thoroughly convincing 3–0 victory. Goals from K. Gaspar, Konan Ignace Jocelyn N'dri, and late substitute Jamil Siebert ensured that Eusebio Di Francesco's side left Friuli with all three points, handing Kosta Runjaic's Udinese a chastening afternoon.
Match Analysis
The opening exchanges gave little indication of the scoreline to come, but Lecce struck early and effectively. In the 11th minute, K. Gaspar powered home a header from an Antonino Gallo assist to put the visitors ahead, setting the tone for what would be a disciplined, clinical away display.
Udinese struggled to respond, and the statistics reveal a paradox at the heart of their afternoon. The home side dominated ball possession at 67%, completed passes at an impressive 84% success rate, and generated 121 attacks to Lecce's 99. Yet this territory and possession proved entirely hollow. Udinese managed only 2 shots on target across the entire match, compared to Lecce's remarkable 11. Lecce's ruthless efficiency in front of goal was the defining feature of the contest.
The damage was compounded in the 33rd minute when Konan Ignace Jocelyn N'dri finished composedly with a right-foot shot, assisted by Tiago Gabriel, to double the visitors' advantage before half-time. Udinese's afternoon was further disrupted when Hassane Kamara received a yellow card in the 43rd minute for a foul, and was subsequently withdrawn at the break as Runjaic attempted to reshape his side, with Juan David Arizala, Matteo Palma, and Jakub Piotrowski all introduced.
Despite six substitutions across the second half, Udinese could not manufacture the quality chances their possession suggested they deserved. A VAR check involving Piotrowski at the 59th minute added further tension without altering the outcome. Lecce, sitting deep on 33% possession, absorbed pressure efficiently and punished Udinese's wastefulness with Lecce's corner count of 4 to Udinese's 1 reflecting where genuine danger actually resided.
The result was sealed in the 86th minute when substitute Jamil Siebert, on the pitch for just four minutes, fired home a right-foot shot to complete the rout and underline the gulf in effectiveness between the two sides on the day.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast of a 1–1 draw — with a home win probability of 48%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 25% — proved well wide of the mark. The confidence level of 56/100 reflected genuine uncertainty, and while Udinese's statistical dominance in possession and attack numbers might superficially justify backing the home side, the model did not sufficiently account for Lecce's threat on the counter and their clinical finishing. This result serves as a reminder that shots on target and conversion efficiency can override territorial dominance — a lesson the data captured in retrospect but underweighted in prediction.
Key Takeaways
- Lecce's shot efficiency was outstanding: 11 shots on target from 17 total represented a conversion rate that made the result ultimately comfortable.
- Udinese's possession (67%) was entirely unproductive, with only 2 shots on target from 14 total — a damning indictment of their attacking output.
- Di Francesco's substitutions proved impactful, with Siebert scoring within minutes of entering the pitch.
- Runjaic will need to urgently address his side's inability to translate dominance into meaningful chances in the weeks ahead.
Udinese vs Lecce Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Udinese and Lecce: Udinese 11W · 3D · Lecce 5W.
11
Udinese wins
3
Draws
5
Lecce wins
Udinese vs Lecce — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Udinese vs Lecce?
PredictNext's AI model favours Udinese with a 48% win probability — Udinese 48%, draw 27%, Lecce 25%.
What is the predicted score for Udinese vs Lecce?
The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Udinese vs Lecce, generated with 56% model confidence.
Will Udinese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Udinese vs Lecce.
How accurate was the Udinese vs Lecce prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 0-3. The winner call was incorrect.