Europa League · Matchday
2026-10-22 16:45:00 · 00:45 · Merkur Spiel-Arena
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-0|Actual: 4-0
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.25 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -21.9% |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.86 | 6.95 | -1.4% | -5.2% | -13.1% |
| 1xbet | 1.45 | 5.11 | 6.38 | -1.4% | -0.4% | -20.3% |
| WilliamHill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.00 | -2.1% | -12.2% | -25.0% |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.50 | -7.5% | -12.2% | -18.8% |
| bwin | 1.46 | 4.75 | 6.25 | -0.7% | -7.4% | -21.9% |
| Unibet | 1.41 | 4.90 | 7.00 | -4.1% | -4.4% | -12.5% |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.00 | -2.1% | -10.3% | -25.0% |
| CoralVALUE | 1.48 | 4.60 | 6.50 | +0.6% | -10.3% | -18.8% |
| MansionBetVALUE | 1.35 | 5.20 | 8.50 | -8.2% | +1.4% | +6.3% |
| MelBet | 1.46 | 4.78 | 6.25 | -0.7% | -6.8% | -21.9% |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | -4.8% | -7.4% | -18.8% |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.80 | -2.1% | -2.5% | -15.0% |
| CashpointVALUE | 1.30 | 5.50 | 7.75 | -11.6% | +7.3% | -3.1% |
| Macauslot | 1.35 | 4.70 | 5.70 | -8.2% | -8.3% | -28.7% |
| Sbo | 1.28 | 4.79 | 6.47 | -13.0% | -6.6% | -19.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.85 | 6.90 | -2.1% | -5.4% | -13.7% |
| InterwettenVALUE | 1.40 | 5.25 | 7.00 | -4.8% | +2.4% | -12.5% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Union Saint-Gilloise 4–0 Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Europa League | 22 October 2026
Result Summary
Union Saint-Gilloise delivered a commanding Europa League performance at home, dismantling Hapoel Be'er Sheva with a 4–0 victory that was emphatic, if slow to ignite. A goalless first half gave way to a dominant second period, with the Belgian hosts eventually running riot to claim a crucial three points in the group stage.
Match Analysis
For the opening 60 minutes, the scoreline belied what the statistics were clearly telling. Union Saint-Gilloise amassed an extraordinary 29 total shots to Hapoel's 6, with 91 dangerous attacks compared to the Israeli side's 35. David Hubert's men were knocking relentlessly on the door without reward — until the dam finally broke.
Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho opened the scoring in the 60th minute, finishing with a right-foot shot from an assist provided by Relebohile Mofokeng. The goal was the release valve the home side desperately needed. Hapoel had already been reduced to a defensive posture, collecting three yellow cards across the match — to Niv Yehoshua (25'), Zahi Ahmed (45+6'), and Miguel Ângelo Leonardo Vitor (58', for handball) — reflecting the pressure they were absorbing and the desperate measures taken to contain it.
Ran Kozuch responded with a triple substitution at the 66th minute, introducing Matan Baltaksa, Mohammad Kna'an, and Adrián Martín Ugarriza Tello in an attempt to reshape his side. The changes failed to stem the tide. Dylan Aquino, himself a substitute having come on in the 30th minute for Darius Olaru, doubled the advantage in the 77th minute with another right-foot finish. It was a reward for an industrious display from the moment he entered the pitch.
The rout was completed in rapid fashion. In the 79th minute, Hubert introduced Denzel De Roeve, and the substitute made an immediate impact — providing the assist for Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho's second goal of the evening just two minutes later. The Portuguese midfielder's brace underlined his quality and clinical edge, making him the standout individual performer of the night.
Union's dominance was comprehensive. Their 15 shots on target compared to Hapoel's 4 tells the story of a match where the Israeli side were largely outclassed. Union's 20 key passes to Hapoel's 4 further illustrates the creativity and intent that ultimately overwhelmed the visitors, despite both sides maintaining comparable possession figures of 51% and 49% respectively.
An early substitution at the 14th minute saw Raul Alexander Florucz replace Mateo Biondic, likely due to injury, yet Union absorbed the disruption without losing momentum.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a 2–0 home win, with Union Saint-Gilloise assigned a 68% probability of victory at a confidence level of 58/100. The outcome validates the directional forecast — Union Saint-Gilloise win correctly predicted — though the margin exceeded expectations significantly. The scoreline of 4–0 reflected a performance even stronger than our model anticipated, particularly in the second half where substitutes proved decisive. The confidence rating of 58/100 was appropriately measured given Hapoel's potential on the road.
Takeaways
- Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho was the match's defining player, scoring a brace and demonstrating finishing quality in big European moments.
- Substitutes proved pivotal: both Dylan Aquino and Denzel De Roeve directly contributed to goals after coming off the bench.
- Hapoel Be'er Sheva's 13 fouls and disciplinary record throughout reflect a side under sustained pressure and struggling to cope with Union's attacking intensity.
- Union Saint-Gilloise's 29 total shots and 20 key passes paint the picture of a side in excellent attacking form under David Hubert, making them a genuine threat in the Europa League this season.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
PredictNext's AI model favours Union Saint-Gilloise with a 68% win probability — Union Saint-Gilloise 68%, draw 20%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 12%.
What is the predicted score for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The AI forecasts a 2-0 scoreline for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva, generated with 58% model confidence.
Will Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for under 2.5 goals in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
How accurate was the Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-0; the match finished 4-0. The winner call was correct.