Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama
2 vs 0

Copa Sudamericana · Matchday

2026-09-15 22:00:00 · 06:00

Santa Fe
Santa Fe

AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 2-0

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Vasco da Gama
VAS
1 - 0
Santa Fe
SAN
64%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
61.0%Home
25.0%Draw
14.0%Away
62.8%Home
23.5%Draw
13.6%Away
Vasco da Gama enter as clear favorites against Santa Fe, bolstered by a 61% win probability and the absence of Santa Fe's D. das Neves Pinheiro through suspension alongside K. Balanta Lucumí ruled out through injury — disrupting the Colombian side's defensive structure. The key battleground will be Vasco's ability to exploit Santa Fe's makeshift backline in transition. AI pick: Vasco da Gama Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
86% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
58% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
62% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

Vasco da Gama Santa Fe
12%
70%
0
51%
30%
1
37%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

61%
63%
-2.2%
25%
23%
+1.7%
14%
14%
+0.5%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

Polymarket Odds

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Match Report

Vasco da Gama 2–0 Santa Fe | Copa Sudamericana | Second Leg Match Report

Vasco da Gama secured a commanding 2–0 victory over Santa Fe at home in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana tie, with goals from Bruno Duarte da Silva and David Correia da Fonseca sealing their progression. Coach Pedro Emanuel's side were efficient and composed throughout, converting their opportunities at key moments to close out the tie convincingly.

Match Analysis

Vasco da Gama held a narrow but meaningful edge in the statistics, finishing with 52% possession and completing 81% of their passes compared to Santa Fe's 75%. More tellingly, the Brazilian side generated 11 total shots to Santa Fe's 8, with 4 on target against the visitors' 3 — a clinical edge that proved decisive.

The opening goal arrived on 37 minutes, when Bruno Duarte da Silva converted with a right-foot shot, finishing off an assist from Alan Saldivia to give the home side the lead. It was a pivotal moment that shifted the tie's momentum firmly toward Vasco.

Santa Fe had made an early tactical adjustment after losing Emanuel Olivera to a yellow card in the sixth minute for a foul, a booking that encouraged caution in the Colombian side's approach. Their response included a substitution at the 40-minute mark, bringing Maximiliano Alberto Lovera on for Emerson Rodríguez, as coach Pablo Repetto looked to inject fresh energy going into the second half.

The tie was effectively settled in the 65th minute, when substitute David Correia da Fonseca — introduced just three minutes earlier — made an immediate impact, rifling home a right-foot shot assisted by José Luis Rodríguez to make it 2–0. It was a textbook impact from the bench and underscored the depth available to Pedro Emanuel's squad. Vasco's triple substitution at the 63rd minute, bringing on Andres Gomez, Thiago Henrique Mendes Ribeiro, and Nuno Gonçalo Rocha Moreira, demonstrated a coordinated effort to control the closing stages.

Despite 5 corners to Vasco's 3, Santa Fe could not translate their set-piece volume into genuine threats on goal. Their 108 total attacks narrowly exceeded Vasco's 105, highlighting a competitive contest in terms of possession and pressure, but the home side's 53 dangerous attacks to Santa Fe's 50 reflected a sharper edge in the final third when it mattered.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Vasco win, assigning a 61% probability to a home victory with a confidence rating of 64/100. The prediction was correct in its outcome — Vasco did win, and they did so at home — though the final margin of 2–0 exceeded our projected scoreline. The underlying statistical indicators supported a tight, controlled Vasco performance, and that broadly played out. The home side's passing accuracy, shot efficiency, and clinical finishing validated the forecast, even if Santa Fe showed enough attacking intent to suggest the margin could, in different circumstances, have been slimmer.

Key Takeaways

  • Bruno Duarte da Silva's opener was the catalyst, with Alan Saldivia's assist highlighting the connectivity in Vasco's attacking play.
  • David Correia da Fonseca's immediate impact from the bench was one of the standout moments — a substitute goal that killed the tie.
  • Santa Fe's Emanuel Olivera's early yellow card disrupted their defensive structure in the opening phases.
  • Vasco's 81% passing accuracy and 9 key passes reflected a team in control of the game's critical passages.
  • Pedro Emanuel's side advance with a well-earned, professional performance in a high-stakes second leg.

Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe?

PredictNext's AI model favours Vasco da Gama with a 61% win probability — Vasco da Gama 61%, draw 25%, Santa Fe 14%.

What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe?

The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe, generated with 64% model confidence.

Will Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe.

How accurate was the Vasco da Gama vs Santa Fe prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 2-0. The winner call was correct.

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