
Serie A · Matchday
2026-09-11 18:45:00 · 02:45

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 2-4
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Venezia 2–4 Fiorentina: La Viola Run Riot in Venice
Result Summary
Fiorentina delivered a commanding performance at Venezia on September 11, claiming a convincing 4–2 victory in Serie A. Franco Mastantuono was the standout individual, netting a superb hat-trick to drive Paolo Vanoli's side to three points, while Venezia's Giovanni Stroppa will be left to reflect on a match where their considerable possession yielded far too little in return.
Match Analysis
Venezia made a promising start, taking the lead through Akor Jerome Adams in the 22nd minute, finishing from a right-foot effort assisted by Gianluca Busio. The opening goal seemed to settle the hosts, who were enjoying a strong share of the ball — they would ultimately finish the match with 63% possession and an impressive 89% successful pass rate.
However, Fiorentina's response was swift and ruthless. Within seven minutes, they had overturned the deficit entirely. Franco Mastantuono struck twice in quick succession — first in the 29th minute from an Álex Jiménez assist, then again just sixty seconds later, this time with Beto providing the setup. Both finishes came off his left foot, and they illustrated precisely what the statistics would later confirm: Fiorentina were the more clinical side by a considerable margin.
The numbers tell a stark tale. Fiorentina registered 19 total shots and 10 on target, compared to Venezia's 10 shots with only 3 on target. Despite Venezia generating 100 attacks — more than Fiorentina's 87 — it was La Viola who produced 16 key passes to Venezia's 11, consistently finding more dangerous positions.
Busio's departure through injury at half-time disrupted Venezia's midfield rhythm, with Thórir Jóhann Helgason introduced ahead of the second period. Fiorentina's substitutions proved more impactful. Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila, introduced in the 60th minute, wasted no time making his mark, adding Fiorentina's third goal in the 66th minute after being perfectly fed by Nicolò Fagioli.
With the match effectively settled, Mastantuono completed his hat-trick in the 84th minute — this time with a header, assisted by Cher Ndour — a finish that showcased his versatility and movement in the box. A late consolation from Antoine Hainaut in the 86th minute, assisted by Ridgeciano Haps, gave the scoreline a slightly more respectable look for the hosts, but it did nothing to shift the overall narrative.
Bookings for Joël Marcel Schingtienne (38') and Simon Sohm (73') for Venezia added to a frustrating evening, as Fiorentina maintained their composure with just one yellow card, for Alieu Eybi Njie in the 72nd minute.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast pointed toward a 1–1 draw, with both sides given closely matched win probabilities (Home 36%, Away 37%). The low confidence score of 51/100 reflected the genuine uncertainty surrounding the fixture. In the end, the prediction was wide of the mark — Fiorentina's attacking efficiency, particularly through Mastantuono, proved to be the decisive factor that our model underweighted.
Key Takeaways
- Franco Mastantuono's hat-trick was the defining feature of this match — three goals, three different moments of quality.
- Venezia's dominant possession (63%) was ultimately hollow; their inability to convert chances into goals proved costly.
- Fiorentina's clinical edge — 10 shots on target versus Venezia's 3 — underlines why the scoreline was never in doubt after the 30th minute.
- Paolo Vanoli's substitutions, particularly Casalanguila's introduction, added further depth to an already impressive attacking display.
Venezia vs Fiorentina — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
PredictNext's AI model favours Fiorentina with a 37% win probability — Venezia 36%, draw 27%, Fiorentina 37%.
What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Venezia vs Fiorentina, generated with 51% model confidence.
Will Venezia vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Venezia vs Fiorentina.
How accurate was the Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 2-4. The winner call was correct.