Venezia
Venezia
0 vs 2

Serie A · Matchday

2026-08-23 16:30:00 · 00:30 · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Lecce
Lecce

AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 0-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Venezia
VEN
1 - 0
Lecce
LEC
54%
Confidence
Low Confidence
43.0%Home
28.0%Draw
29.0%Away
40.6%Home
29.9%Draw
29.5%Away
**Venezia** hold a slight home advantage against **Lecce**, with the visitors further weakened by M. Moreno's confirmed absence through muscular problems — a meaningful blow to Lecce's attacking options. The H2H record is closely contested, making home atmosphere and defensive solidity the likely decisive factor in what promises to be a tight affair. AI pick: Venezia Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredVEN or LEC
72% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
62% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
58% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

VEN LEC
18%
40%
0
47%
60%
1
35%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

43%
42%
+0.6%
28%
30%
-1.6%
29%
28%
+1.0%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

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Match Report

Venezia 0–2 Lecce | Serie A | 23 August 2026

Result Summary

Lecce produced a composed and clinical performance at Venezia's ground, securing a 2–0 victory courtesy of goals from Olaf Gorter just after the interval and Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira on 80 minutes. The result was all the more striking given that Venezia dominated the statistical landscape for much of the contest, yet Di Francesco's side were ruthlessly efficient when it mattered most.

Match Analysis

The numbers tell a paradoxical story. Venezia controlled 71% of ball possession, generated 145 attacks to Lecce's 77, and registered 19 total shots compared to the visitors' 12. On paper, this was a home side in control. In reality, it was Lecce who found the net twice.

The first half passed without a goal, but the game shifted fundamentally in the opening seconds of the second period. On 46 minutes, Olaf Gorter converted with his right foot, assisted by Lassana Coulibaly, catching Venezia's backline flat-footed at the worst possible moment. It was a sucker-punch that immediately undermined all of the home side's first-half industry.

Coach Giovanni Stroppa made his first move at 64 minutes, replacing Thierry Correia — who had been subject to a VAR review as early as the 16th minute — with Ridgeciano Haps. Kike Pérez was also withdrawn in favour of Matteo Dagasso on 70 minutes, though Dagasso himself was booked shortly after for a foul. Despite these changes and 7 shots on target, Venezia could not find a way through Lecce's disciplined defensive structure.

A second VAR check, this time involving Toma Bašić on 75 minutes, interrupted the home side's momentum at a critical juncture. Then, on 80 minutes, substitute Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira — introduced just six minutes earlier — headed home from a Danilo Veiga assist to seal the points. It was a devastating and efficient counter-punch from Lecce, who finished the match with 5 shots on target from just 12 total attempts, highlighting their clinical edge over Venezia's more voluminous but ultimately wasteful attacking output.

Lecce accumulated three yellow cards throughout the afternoon — K. Gaspar (3'), Oumar Ngom (59'), and Danilo Veiga (71') — reflecting the physicality required to keep Venezia at bay, but Di Francesco's men held firm. Venezia's 87% successful pass rate and 11 key passes further underline the frustrating nature of the defeat for Stroppa's side: the quality of build-up play was present, but the finishing touch was absent.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast leaned toward a Venezia home win at 43%, with a predicted score of 1–0. The confidence level of 54/100 reflected genuine uncertainty, and the actual outcome proved that uncertainty was well-founded. The statistical profile of the match — heavy Venezia possession and attack volume — was broadly in line with what the model anticipated in terms of territorial dominance. However, the forecast failed to account for Lecce's counter-attacking efficiency, which proved decisive. This was a reminder that raw attacking statistics do not always translate into goals, particularly against a well-drilled, compact defensive unit.

Key Takeaways

  • Clinical finishing wins games: Lecce scored with 2 of their 5 shots on target, converting with remarkable precision.
  • Possession without penetration remains a fundamental risk for sides like Venezia, who created volume but lacked the cutting edge to convert it.
  • Substitutes proved decisive: both of Lecce's goals were connected to the impact of their bench, with Gorter's goal arriving at the half-time reset and Oliveira netting within minutes of coming on.
  • Lecce's Eusebio Di Francesco will be credited with an excellent tactical setup that absorbed pressure and struck at exactly the right moments.

Venezia vs Lecce Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Venezia and Lecce: Venezia 1W · 4D · Lecce 3W.

1

4

3

Sun, Apr 6, 2025Lecce1-1Venezia
Mon, Nov 25, 2024Venezia0-1Lecce
Thu, May 20, 2021Lecce1-1Venezia
Mon, May 17, 2021Venezia1-0Lecce
Tue, Mar 16, 2021Venezia2-3Lecce

Venezia vs Lecce — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Venezia vs Lecce?

PredictNext's AI model favours Venezia with a 43% win probability — Venezia 43%, draw 28%, Lecce 29%.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Lecce?

The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for Venezia vs Lecce, generated with 54% model confidence.

Will Venezia vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for under 2.5 goals in Venezia vs Lecce.

How accurate was the Venezia vs Lecce prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 0-2. The winner call was incorrect.

More Serie A AI Predictions