Celta de Vigo 2–1 Deportivo Alavés | La Liga | 18 October 2026

Result Summary

Celta de Vigo claimed a hard-fought three points at home, defeating Deportivo Alavés 2–1 in a Sunday afternoon La Liga fixture. Despite being significantly outplayed in terms of volume and intent, Claudio Giráldez González's side showed admirable clinical efficiency, converting their limited chances to secure a victory that defied the statistical narrative of the match.

Match Analysis

The numbers tell a story that makes Celta's win all the more remarkable. Deportivo Alavés dominated virtually every attacking metric, generating 20 total shots to Celta's 6, registering 9 shots on target compared to the home side's 3, and accumulating 59 dangerous attacks against Celta's 22. Enrique Sánchez Flores's team also enjoyed a slight edge in possession (52% to 48%) and produced 13 key passes versus 6, yet walked away empty-handed — a brutal illustration of how football can punish even the most industrious of performances.

The first half was relatively controlled, with the only notable incident being a yellow card for Sebastián Cáceres in the 15th minute for a foul, followed by one for Alavés's Antonio Martínez at the stroke of half-time. Giráldez made a double substitution at the break, introducing Aleix Febas Pérez and Javier Rueda García, signalling an intent to reshape the team's structure for the second period.

The decisive period arrived just after the hour mark. Ferran Jutglà Blanc opened the scoring in the 53rd minute, converting from the left foot following an assist from Javi Rodríguez — a clinical finish that belied Celta's relative passivity in attack. Alavés responded by throwing on three substitutes simultaneously in the 62nd minute, including Mariano Díaz and Hugo Novoa Ramos, in a clear attempt to wrestle back control.

The response, however, came from the other end. When Iago Aspas entered the pitch in the 70th minute, his influence was immediate — he provided the assist for Javier Rodríguez Galiano's goal just one minute later in the 71st, with a composed right-foot finish doubling the home advantage. It was the kind of impact that underlines why Aspas remains such an influential figure at this club.

Alavés refused to capitulate, and Hugo Novoa Ramos pulled one back in the 87th minute, finishing with his left foot from a Mariano Díaz assist to set up a nervy finale. But Celta managed the closing moments to preserve the result.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called this as a Celta de Vigo win at 2–1, giving the home side a 48.5% probability of victory. With a confidence rating of 57/100, this was not a high-conviction call, yet it proved entirely accurate — both the correct result and the precise scoreline were forecast. The model correctly identified Celta's capacity to be decisive despite not dominating proceedings, and the 2–1 margin reflected the late Alavés consolation that was always a risk given their superior attacking volume.

Key Takeaways

• Celta were ruthless in front of goal, converting 3 of 6 shots — a finishing efficiency that far outstripped Alavés's 1 from 20.
• Iago Aspas's introduction was a turning point, with an assist arriving within 60 seconds of his substitution.
• Alavés's 0 corners earned by Celta and 4 corners for the visitors further highlight the visitors' territorial authority — authority that ultimately went unrewarded.
• Sánchez Flores will be frustrated that his side's dominance in attacks and key passes yielded only a single late consolation goal.