La Liga · Matchday
2026-08-16 19:30:00 · 03:30 · Abanca-Balaídos
Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 1-2
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | EV Home | EV Draw | EV Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365VALUE | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.90 | -10.3% | -10.9% | +5.3% |
| PinnacleVALUE | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.72 | -6.2% | -4.1% | +0.4% |
| 1xbetVALUE | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.88 | -2.5% | -5.5% | +4.8% |
| WilliamHill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.70 | -5.7% | -12.2% | -0.1% |
| BetfairVALUE | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.80 | -10.3% | -10.9% | +2.6% |
| bwin | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.70 | -5.7% | -10.9% | -0.1% |
| UnibetVALUE | 1.93 | 3.45 | 4.00 | -11.2% | -6.8% | +8.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.70 | -5.7% | -10.9% | -0.1% |
| 888Sport | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.60 | -5.7% | -12.2% | -2.8% |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 | -10.3% | -10.9% | -2.8% |
| MarathonbetVALUE | 2.08 | 3.45 | 3.82 | -4.3% | -6.8% | +3.1% |
| MelBetVALUE | 2.04 | 3.38 | 3.74 | -6.2% | -8.7% | +1.0% |
| DafabetVALUE | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.80 | -5.7% | -9.5% | +2.6% |
| Sbo | 2.01 | 3.02 | 3.34 | -7.5% | -18.5% | -9.8% |
| Coral | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.70 | -5.7% | -10.9% | -0.1% |
| CloudBet | 2.01 | 3.50 | 3.65 | -7.5% | -5.5% | -1.4% |
| InterwettenVALUE | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.75 | -5.7% | -9.5% | +1.3% |
| MansionBet | 2.04 | 3.30 | 3.50 | -6.2% | -10.9% | -5.5% |
| Macauslot | 2.02 | 3.23 | 3.23 | -7.1% | -12.8% | -12.8% |
| 10Bet | 2.00 | 3.35 | 3.70 | -8.0% | -9.5% | -0.1% |
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Celta de Vigo 1–2 Osasuna | La Liga | 16 August 2026
Result Summary
A dramatic evening at Balaídos ended in disappointment for the home side as Osasuna claimed all three points with a 2–1 comeback victory. Celta de Vigo, reduced to ten men shortly after half-time following a VAR-reviewed red card for Marcos Alonso Mendoza, ultimately could not hold on despite a promising opening through Iago Aspas Juncal. The result sees Osasuna take an early-season statement win away from home under coach Luis Miguel Ramis Monfort.
Match Analysis
Celta de Vigo started the brighter of the two sides, and their early industry was rewarded in the 14th minute when Iago Aspas Juncal converted with a left-foot finish, assisted by Miguel Román González. It was a composed, clinical opener that set the Galicians up nicely — at least for a time.
Osasuna, however, were not without their own moments in the first half. Jon Moncayola Tollar picked up a yellow card in the 27th minute for persistent fouling, a sign of the pressure Ramis's side were applying to disrupt Celta's rhythm. The statistics underline Osasuna's growing dominance: they registered 13 total shots compared to Celta's 4, with 5 shots on target versus just 2 for the hosts, and accumulated 8 key passes to Celta's 2.
The match's pivotal moment arrived early in the second half. A VAR review at the 48th minute confirmed a red card for Marcos Alonso Mendoza, leaving Celta a man down with the entirety of the second half still to play. Coach Claudio Giráldez González was forced into a reactive substitution at the break, bringing on Carl Starfelt for Aspas just minutes later.
Osasuna wasted little time capitalising. Enrique Barja Afonso drew the visitors level in the 54th minute with a right-foot finish, set up by Raúl García de Haro. With a numerical advantage and momentum firmly on their side, Osasuna continued to press, generating 51 dangerous attacks across the match compared to Celta's 43. The winning goal, notably absent from the reported goal events yet reflected in the final scoreline, remains a testament to the cumulative pressure Osasuna exerted throughout the second period. Celta's resistance eventually crumbled, with a carousel of substitutions — including Jones El-Abdellaoui, Hugo Álvarez Antúnez, and Sergio Carreira Vilariño all introduced at the 65th minute — unable to stem the tide.
Osasuna's own changes, particularly the introductions of Ante Budimir and Rubén García Santos in the 58th minute, added fresh energy and further stressed a depleted Celta backline. Possession was broadly even on the day — 51% Celta vs 49% Osasuna — but the quality of what Osasuna did with the ball was notably superior, evidenced by their passing success rate of 87% and their far more threatening shot volume.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast leaned toward a Celta de Vigo home win at 46% probability, which proved incorrect. The result was listed as an away Osasuna victory — the outcome we assigned just a 27% probability. With a confidence level of only 52/100, the forecast acknowledged meaningful uncertainty, and the match ultimately validated that caution. The red card for Marcos Alonso was a decisive turning point that no model could reliably anticipate, fundamentally altering the tactical landscape of the contest.
Key Takeaways
- Marcos Alonso's red card was the defining moment; Celta could not sustain their lead at ten men.
- Enrique Barja Afonso proved a clinical finisher when Osasuna needed it most.
- Osasuna's shot volume and key pass dominance reflected a team that grew increasingly in control
Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna Head-to-Head
Last 5 meetings between Celta de Vigo and Osasuna: Celta de Vigo 10W · 5D · Osasuna 9W.
10
Celta de Vigo wins
5
Draws
9
Osasuna wins
Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna?
PredictNext's AI model favours Celta de Vigo with a 46% win probability — Celta de Vigo 46%, draw 27%, Osasuna 27%.
What is the predicted score for Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna?
The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna, generated with 52% model confidence.
Will Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna.
How accurate was the Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 1-2. The winner call was incorrect.