Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés
5 vs 2

La Liga · Matchday

2026-09-06 16:30:00 · 00:30

Osasuna
Osasuna

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 5-2

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Deportivo Alavés
DEP
1 - 1
Osasuna
OSA
55%
Confidence
Low Confidence
40.0%Home
31.0%Draw
29.0%Away
42.1%Home
29.0%Draw
29.0%Away
**Deportivo Alavés** enter as narrow home favorites, boosted by a key player returning from the sidelined list, while **Osasuna** must cope without M. Rodriguez Ulacia, ruled out with a cruciate ligament tear — a significant blow to their setup. Alavés' home advantage could prove decisive in a historically tight fixture where H2H form shows three draws in the last five. AI pick: Deportivo Alavés Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
71% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
56% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
56% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pick—No data available
Most likely to score—No data available

Goal Probability

Deportivo Alavés Osasuna
13%
38%
0
52%
62%
1
34%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

40%
42%
-1.7%
31%
31%
-0.3%
29%
27%
+2.0%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

Polymarket Odds

Loading prediction market data...

Trading Strategy

Loading market depth data...

Match Report

Deportivo Alavés 5–2 Osasuna | La Liga | 6 September 2026

Result Summary

Deportivo Alavés delivered a commanding home performance at Mendizorroza, dismantling Osasuna with a 5–2 victory that was far more convincing than the scoreline even suggests. Enrique Sánchez Flores's side were ruthless in front of goal, with Lucas Ariel Boyé stealing the headlines by completing a clinical hat-trick. Osasuna, managed by Luis Miguel Ramis Monfort, were never truly in the contest despite a brief flicker of hope early in the second half.


Match Analysis

Alavés set the tone early, taking the lead in the 27th minute when Boyé converted with a right-foot finish, assisted by Mariano Díaz. The hosts doubled their advantage nine minutes later when Mariano Díaz Mejía himself got on the scoresheet, benefiting from a measured assist by goalkeeper Antonio Sivera — a notable contribution from the Alavés stopper. Heading into the break with a two-goal cushion, Alavés looked well in control.

Osasuna offered a response almost immediately after the restart. Ante Budimir pulled one back with a header in the 46th minute, assisted by Moi Gómez, and for a brief moment there was a sense that Ramis's side could make a game of it. That hope was extinguished swiftly. Boyé struck again in the 51st minute, this time assisted by Carles Aleñá, restoring the two-goal margin and effectively killing Osasuna's momentum.

The visitors made a bold triple substitution on the hour mark — bringing on Jonathan Dubasin, Raul Moro Prescoli, and Rockson Yeboah — but the changes failed to alter the contest. Boyé completed his hat-trick in the 68th minute with a header, assisted by Ángel Pérez, before Alavés's own triple change at the 71st minute allowed Sánchez Flores to manage his squad efficiently. The afternoon was rounded off with a 90th-minute header from Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras, again set up by Ángel Pérez, to complete the rout.

The statistics reflect Alavés's dominance in the areas that mattered most. They registered 12 total shots to Osasuna's 7, with 7 on target compared to the visitors' 5. Both teams shared possession equally at 50% each and were level in attacks (93 vs 99) and dangerous attacks (40 vs 36), underlining that Alavés's superiority was built on finishing efficiency rather than outright territorial control. Their 84% successful pass rate edged Osasuna's 82%, while their 4 corners to 1 reflect sustained pressure in advanced areas.

Disciplinary-wise, the match remained relatively controlled. Abel Bretones Cruz picked up a yellow card for Osasuna in the 58th minute, followed by Alavés's Abderrahman Rebbach in the 62nd, and Rockson Yeboah was cautioned in the 84th minute — no red cards and no major flashpoints beyond the goals themselves.


Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast pointed to a 1–1 draw, with a home win assigned just a 40% probability against a 31% draw estimate. With a confidence score of only 55/100, uncertainty was clearly flagged — but the magnitude of Alavés's performance still went well beyond any modelled outcome. Boyé's hat-trick and the collective cohesion of the home side represented a level of attacking output that our analysis simply did not anticipate.


Key Takeaways

  • Lucas Ariel Boyé was unplayable, completing a hat-trick (27', 51', 68') to drive Alavés to a historic home win.
  • Ángel Pérez was quietly influential, registering two assists in the second half.
  • Osasuna's triple substitution at the hour mark had no discernible impact on the outcome.
  • Alavés's clinical edge — converting **7 of 12

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?

PredictNext's AI model favours Deportivo Alavés (also known as Deportivo Alaves) with a 40% win probability — Deportivo Alavés 40%, draw 31%, Osasuna 29%.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna, generated with 55% model confidence.

Will Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 44% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for under 2.5 goals in Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna.

How accurate was the Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 5-2. The winner call was correct.

More La Liga AI Predictions