
Allsvenskan · Matchday
2026-04-26 12:00:00 · 20:00

Prediction Result
AI Predicted: 1-3|Actual: 1-1
AI Prediction
Top AI Picks
Goal Probability
Odds Comparison
Polymarket Odds
Trading Strategy
Match Report
Djurgården 1–1 Hammarby | Allsvenskan | 26 April 2026
Result Summary
The Stockholm derby ended in a share of the spoils, with Djurgården and Hammarby drawing 1–1 at Allsvenskan matchday. Kristian Strømland Lien gave the hosts an early lead before Nahir Besara levelled for the visitors in the second half, leaving both sides with one point apiece in a fiercely contested city rivalry.
Match Analysis
Djurgården made the perfect start when Kristian Strømland Lien converted in the 9th minute, finishing with his left foot from an assist by Hampus Finndell. It was the kind of early statement a home side craves in a derby, and for much of the first half, Jani Honkavaara's side appeared capable of protecting it.
However, the statistics paint a clear picture of where the balance of play lay. Hammarby dominated possession with 62% to Djurgården's 38%, generated 57 dangerous attacks compared to just 33 for the home side, and completed passes at an 85% success rate against Djurgården's 67%. Kalle Karlsson's side also more than doubled their opponents in total shots — 16 to 6 — and produced 12 key passes versus Djurgården's 6. In short, Hammarby were the more threatening side across the 90 minutes, yet they found Djurgården's defensive resolve difficult to break down until the hour mark.
The equaliser arrived in the 61st minute, when Nahir Besara tucked away a right foot shot assisted by Oscar Johansson Schellhas, restoring parity and reflecting Hammarby's sustained pressure. Almost immediately, Djurgården responded with a double substitution, introducing Joel Asoro and Jeppe Okkels at the 62-minute mark. Further changes followed — Leon Hien, Adam Ståhl, and Mikael Josh Marques de Pombal Vivar all came on for the hosts — but Hammarby's control of the ball made it difficult for Djurgården to re-establish the lead.
A feisty closing spell saw Noah Persson (Hammarby) and Peter Langhoff (Djurgården) both pick up yellow cards in the 81st and 82nd minutes respectively for fouls, underlining the physical nature of late-game derby exchanges. Despite Hammarby's statistical superiority — notably 4 shots on target to Djurgården's 3 — neither side could force a winner, and the points were shared.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match forecast called for a Hammarby victory (1–3), with the away side carrying a 41.7% probability of winning compared to a 27.2% chance of a draw. The confidence rating of 58/100 reflected genuine uncertainty, and that uncertainty proved well-founded. While Hammarby's dominance in possession, dangerous attacks, and shot volume aligned with the rationale behind the prediction, Djurgården's early goal and disciplined defensive effort meant the visitors could not convert their territorial advantage into a winning margin. The draw outcome (27.2% probability) proved correct, making this prediction incorrect.
Key Takeaways
- Djurgården's early goal from Strømland Lien set the tone, but their defensive resilience — despite being under sustained pressure — was ultimately the decisive factor in earning a point.
- Hammarby's attacking output (16 shots, 12 key passes, 62% possession) was impressive, but their inability to find a second goal underlines that statistical dominance does not guarantee results.
- Besara's equaliser was a timely reminder of the quality Hammarby possess in the final third when combinations click.
- With both sides finishing on equal terms, neither will be fully satisfied — Djurgården because they surrendered the lead, Hammarby because they couldn't convert clear superiority into three points.
Djurgården vs Hammarby — Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Djurgården vs Hammarby?
PredictNext's AI model favours Hammarby with a 42% win probability — Djurgården 31%, draw 27%, Hammarby 42%.
What is the predicted score for Djurgården vs Hammarby?
The AI forecasts a 1-3 scoreline for Djurgården vs Hammarby, generated with 58% model confidence.
Will Djurgården vs Hammarby have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives 62% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for under 2.5 goals in Djurgården vs Hammarby.
How accurate was the Djurgården vs Hammarby prediction?
PredictNext's AI predicted 1-3; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.